A new report by Harvard University revealed that countries that take strict measures to combat Corona will be exposed to a dangerous wave of illness in the fall and winter, considering that “the closure of society, the worst that can be done.”
The report concluded that “closing the community now is the worst that can be done, and even worse than taking no action”, but it indicated, however, that with no drug or vaccine against the virus, social separation is the first weapon to control the spread of infection.
The report, written by 4 epidemiologists and immunologists, examined the effect of community closure on the long-term spread of infection, and the scholars focused on two main points:
First: What happens if a person applies two weeks after the epidemic spreads socially for a period of 4, 8, 12 or 20 weeks? And the second: to what extent the infection spread during these periods decreased to 0 percent, 20, 40, or 60 percent.
The results clearly showed that the best strategy is a long phase of 20 weeks, during which the infection decreases by 20-40 percent. In this case, the number of infected people at one time is much lower, and the number of people infected decreases throughout the epidemic.
The researchers explained that “the pressure by strict measures to reduce the spread of infection by 60 percent, during the early stages of the epidemic, will reduce the number of patients now, but it may lead to the risks of a huge second wave of disease spread in the fall and winter, because the pressure was so effective that no immunity accumulated between Almost population. ”
The scientists added that “the new wave will be associated with a greater number of infected people, and a greater risk to health care, and the pressure exerted by the state at the beginning of the disease will be worse than if it did not take any action,” noting that “the peak of the disease will be associated with the flu season, which increases matters Worse. ”
The researchers’ assumption was based on a simple principle that “infection cannot be stopped”, while they set the goal by “making sure that the number of injured does not exceed the capacity of medical care to absorb”, and therefore the most successful strategy according to the mathematical model is “activating social divergence when the number increases Injuries to a certain extent, and restrictions are reduced when the number of casualties decreases.
On the other hand, the researchers pointed out that it is difficult to determine the time required to tighten or reduce restrictions, as it takes about three weeks between taking measures and reducing the number of patients who need medical care.
But if this strategy succeeds, the researchers believe that the need for social separation will decrease over time, as the number of people recovering increases, becomes immune and does not contribute to the spread of infection.
The researchers said that the slow spread of infection in the summer will be of great importance if it happens, but the matter is still unresolved for the emerging virus, and they added that the epidemic may continue until July 2022, but it is possible to completely end the social spacing during the first half of 2021, pointing to A vaccine can quickly boost immunity and reduce the need for social spacing, but no one believes that a vaccine will be available before 12-18 months, at best.
And according to the Swedish newspaper “Aftonbladet”, this report is consistent with the strategy pursued by Sweden to deal with infection, despite being subjected to many criticism around the world as different from what most countries have adopted of strict measures to close society.
Source: alkompis.se
